To Rebel Is No Longer Justified: The Demobilization of Tsinghua Red Guards

Hanlin Tao, University of Wisconsin-Madison

How do high-risk social movements decline and unravel in a short period? In high-risk movements, where exit costs are high and commitment is embedded in dense organizational, ideological, and psychological structures, rapid group decline and individual disengagement pose a puzzle. Existing explanations typically attribute demobilization either to harsh state repression or to long-term attrition. This project aims to address this puzzle by focusing on the interaction between group decision and sustaining mechanisms that make continued organized participation in high-risk movements possible. Based on an Event Structure Analysis of the demobilization process of two rival Red Guard factions at Tsinghua University, from their first encounter with the Mao’s Propaganda Team on July 27–28, 1968, to their formal dissolution on August 16, this case shows how high-risk social movements can collapse rapidly when ideological frames fail to render meaning to continued struggle, perceived risks and gains shift, and prior investments cease to bind participants or even become liabilities.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 179. Red Guards, Elite Conflict, and the Cultural Revolution