Path Dependence Theory and Institutional Change

Salih O. Noor, The University of Chicago

Path dependence remains a foundational concept in historical social analysis. Yet path dependence is commonly understood as a theory of institutional stasis or persistence that does not accommodate or explain change. To overcome this challenge, this paper advances a “branching paths” model of path dependence in which early institutional choices generate feedback effects that drive gradual and incremental change that is adaptive, constrained, and path-structured. It first discusses properties of path-dependent change and then articulates forms and mechanisms through which path-dependent change unfolds. Unlike path-independent models of gradual institutional change, path-dependent change is path-bounded: an originating critical event sets the system on a distinctive track, and subsequent reforms unfold incrementally within a path shaped by earlier choices. By reframing path dependence as a theory of both persistence and structured change, this paper bridges the gap between persistence-centered theories of path dependence and theories of gradualist institutional change. Whereas the latter explain the political conditions under which institutions incrementally change, a theory of path-dependent change explains how earlier institutional outcomes structure the direction, mode, and possibilities of subsequent change.

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 Presented in Session 44. Where Markets End and States Begin: Institutional Boundaries, Military Spending, and Neoliberal Networks