Multiple Paths of State Formation in Late Imperial China: Reconsidering the Great Divergence through the Early and Mid-Ming Eunuch Dispatch System (1368-1464)

Han Zhang, Renmin University of China
Ruizhe Zhang, Peking University

At the heart of the Great Divergence debate lies a critical inquiry: Could China have endogenously generated industrial capitalism and modern nation-state institutions? Moving beyond long-standing binary "yes/no" narratives, this paper argues late imperial China was not locked into a single predetermined path, revealing multiple open historical developmental possibilities in early and mid-Ming China. To test this argument, we construct an original dataset of the Ming eunuch dispatch system from 1368 to 1464, systematically sourced from the Veritable Records of the Ming Dynasty and other official historical archives. Using a mixed-methods approach including computational social science-based descriptive statistics, spatial network analysis, and causal inference via regression discontinuity design (RDD), we identify three pivotal structural shifts in the eunuch dispatch system over this period. First, the spatial scope of eunuch dispatches expanded markedly from tributary states and frontier regions to the full inland territory of the empire, while the nature of eunuch dispatch assignments evolved from temporary, informal mandates to permanent, institutionalized arrangements. This shift aligns with the core logic of Charles Tilly’s model of territorial sovereign state formation. Second, the primary functions of dispatched eunuchs shifted from diplomacy and military command to military-civilian supervision and patrimonial fiscal management for the imperial household, reflecting a parallel evolutionary trajectory toward a patrimonial state. Third, the ethnic composition of dispatched eunuchs shifted from a non-Han majority to overwhelming Han dominance, demonstrating a trend of ethnic inward cohesion and evolution toward a single-ethnic nation-state. These findings reveal the coexistence of multiple, overlapping state formation logics in pre-modern China. Theoretically, this paper makes original contributions to scholarship on the Great Divergence in economic history, state formation theory in historical sociology, and the distinctive dynamics of Chinese state building. Substantively, it uncovers alternative non-Western modernities, offering critical insights for contemporary modernization debates.

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 Presented in Session 210. Why Some Rise and Others Don't: Inequality, Geography, and the Long Arc of State Formation