From Sandinista Revolution to Authoritarian Restoration: Nicaragua’s Political-Economic Cycles in a Changing External Environment, 1979-Present

Vadim Grishin, Georgetown University

The paper examines Nicaragua’s journey from the 1979 Sandinista revolution to the Ortega–Murillo “co-presidency” and the constitutional changes ratified in early 2026. The author uses two interconnected frameworks: William H. Sewell Jr.’s theory of eventful temporality and Crane Brinton’s cyclical model of revolution, focusing on the concept of “Thermidor” as restoration under the guise of revolution. It argues that Nicaragua’s post-1979 development should be seen not as a linear transition but as recurring cycles in which crises cause major ruptures that realign alliances and institutional strategies. These often lead to settlements that strengthen power by reducing political diversity and turning state capacity into patrimonial control. The analysis considers the external environment: Cuba, Venezuela, China, Russia, and the United States/West as a key factor influencing fiscal rents, coercive strength, and diplomatic insulation. Finally, it explores whether a renewed “maximum pressure” U.S. strategy, associated with the Trump era, can realistically “break the pattern,” concluding that coercive leverage alone has limited success without credible incentives, multilateral coordination, and attention to the political economy that sustains the regime.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 162. Revolution Compared II: Revolutions Since Late Cold War