High Temperatures and Crime: Evidence from China

Zhuo Chen, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

We study the effect of high temperatures on crime in China using over 4.4 million criminal judgments and Census data from 2014–2020 through fixed effect model. Results show that a one-degree Celsius increase raises daily crime by 0.6%. We find that crime rises with moderate heat but flattens at extreme heat, reflecting a non-linear relationship. cumulative effect model shows limited temporal crime displacement, with 94% of the effect occurring contemporaneously. These findings provide new evidence from China and highlight the short-run social costs of rising temperatures.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 112. Effects of Environmental Pressures