Temperature and Mortality in the Path to Modernity

Pau Insa-Sanchez, Jaume I University

This study examines the relationship between temperature and mortality in a context of profound economic and social transformations. I use the case of Spain, a country that experienced a significant process of convergence with other European countries during the 20th century marked by a substantial increase in per capita income and a pronounced decline in both fertility and mortality rates, as well as significant improvements in healthcare infrastructure and in the nutritional conditions of most of the population. To do so, I construct a granular dataset that integrates demographic information with climatological records for all Spanish provinces over a 60-year period that enables for an analysis of how short-term temperature variations correlate with mortality outcomes. The results show the existence of an inverted J-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Spain, with both low and high temperatures being correlated with higher mortality. The findings also underscore the role of humidity in modulating this relationship, particularly through its exacerbating effect at lower average temperatures. Moreover, I show how improvements along the path of economic growth and development allowed for significant mitigations of the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality. In order to understand the magnitude of this phenomenon in terms of welfare, I conduct a counterfactual analysis to estimate the number of climate-related deaths averted as a result of improvements in healthcare provision and the adaptive capacity associated with economic development in Spain during the late years of Francoism, the transition to democracy, and the subsequent expansion of the public health system under democracy. By doing so, this contribution allows for a deeper understanding of how the dynamics linking climate and mortality evolve across different stages of economic development as well as the demographic, nutritional, and epidemiological transition models.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 51. Disease Ecologies, Notions of Modernity, and Conceptions of Illness